The Failed Sunni Army Solution
Blowback Across Lebanon
By Franklin Lamb, Tripoli, Lebanon
CounterPunch, Weekend Edition June 15-17, 2007
Whoever killed anti-Syrian Lebanese MP Walid Eido Wednesday knew
Syria would be blamed and that the country would move closer to
civil war. Pro-government factions turned out in force along
Beirut's Roauche sea front chanting anti-Syrian and anti-Hezbollah
slogans but no serious fighting has been ignited yet.
Another consequence may be to breathe new life into chances for a US
backed Northern Sunni Army to confront Hezbollah and the
Palestinians. The Northern Sunni Army, seemed doable-at least a
couple of years ago-during Plan "B"-then Plan "C"—which became Plan
"D" sessions of the Welch Club to decide who was going to control
Lebanon.
For the Club, comprised of David Welch, Samir Geagea, (Lebanese
Forces) Walid Jumblatt (Druze PSP militia) and chaired by Saad
Hariri, (Future Movement) plus some allies, like current Prime
Minister Fuad Siniora, the choices were black and white simple:
Lebanon's future will be controlled by Israel and the US or Lebanon
will be controlled by Syria and Iran.
What role will be played by the Lebanese themselves would depend on
'variables'. Among which were the need for a Bush administration
victory in Iraq, destroying Hezbollah, leader of the Lebanese
resistance and nationalist movement, and preventing Israel,
increasingly seen in the Pentagon as teetering, as history's
judgment approaches, from virtually collapsing.
When some bright graduate student writes a Doctoral dissertation
entitled : Who lost Lebanon? the thesis may well argue that effects
of the historic events now unfolding including Nahr al-Bared and
simmering in Ain el Helweh, and Lebanon's other ten Palestinian
Refugee Camps. This, in addition to the blowback from the debacle of
the Bush administration's 2003 invasion of Iraq which unleashed a
horrific Shia/Sunni conflict and civil war. Within 9 months of the
invasion of Iraq, fear of the 'Shia rising" phenomenon quickly
created panic in Washington, Riyadh and Amman. Both Kings Abdullah
explained to all who would listen that a dangerous Shia Crescent was
taking form that would arc from Iran, across Iraq to Lebanon.
The Bush administration listened, and never creating a Middle East
problem it didn't have a solution for, followed the lead of the
Neocons and Ziocons in their ranks and advised their Sunni allies of
yet another new project.
"It was a truly ' epiphanous, spiritual awakening'" one American
University of Beirut student recently called it. The obvious
solution to check the increased regional influence of Iran and Syia,
was to quickly create a Northern Sunni Army to confront a Southern
Lebanese Shia army (Hezbollah). The murder of Rafic Hariri, and
those seven Lebanese opinion makers assassinated since, accelerated
the project.
North Lebanon appeared to be the perfect recruiting ground for
Lebanon's newest army because the area is overwhelmingly Sunni,
pro-Hariri, has high unemployment with many able young men willing
to be recruited and the community feels left out of economic
advances to their south.
In addition, North Lebanon has a well situated airport at Keilaat,
which, according to this scenario, could be converted to US base
which would include a training facility for the new force.
From interviews with members of Fatah Intafada, Fatah al-Islam, Jund
al Sham, Osbat al Ansar, Jund Allah and many PLO factions, plus
residents in all 12 of Lebanon's Palestinian Refugees Camps, as well
as various NGO's and long time camp observers, one fact seems quite
clear. Those who were imported into Lebanon to be the catalyst of
the new force proved more interested in fighting Israel than
fighting Hezbollah or the Palestinians and appeared to take
seriously the late Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi counsel that fighters should
go to the border of Palestine and fight.
Moreover, the widely held view here is that Al Qeada has arrived in
Lebanon with a vengeance and Fatah al-Islam is just the tip of the
iceberg. The 'cells' are throughout Lebanon and are organizing
broadly and not just in the Palestinian Camps, where they are
resisted by Hamas, Fatah Arafat, and the Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine, as in Shatilla and Burj al-Baraneh Camps.
Practically every day witnesses Lebanese security forces finding all
sorts of explosives, car bombs, arms stores( 6/14/07 another large
stash six blocks from Nahr al-Bared) and receiving information from
Fatah al-Islam, Jund al-Sham and other Salafist detainees,
concerning dozens of planned operations from bombing the American
Embassy, large hotels, malls and attacking UNIFIL forces. As Robert
Fisk reported recently, Hezbollah officials have assured the French,
Spanish and Italian Embassy's that Hezbollah will watch UNIFIL's
back and try to stop Al Qeada from attacking them. A "hit list" with
30 names was reported on 6/13/07, just hours before MP Wadid
Eido,one of the names on the list, was murdered.
The UN, also to be targeted, according to Internal Security reports,
is on high alert. One reliable source advised this observer on
6/14/07 that Hezbollah men are actually discretely leading UN
convoys along the 75 mile blue line, sort of riding shotgun, in
front of them and with the electronics they are known for. Hezbollah
intelligence, which checkmated Israel during the July 2006 war, is
believed by the UN to be just as solid today and the UN appreciates
the help.
Seymour Hersh uses the word 'acute' to describe the concern in the
White House regarding the Shia renaissance.
As a result, Hersh claims the Bush administration is no longer
acting rationally in its policy. "We're in the business of
supporting the Sunnis anywhere we can against the Shiite. ... "We're
in the business of creating ... sectarian violence." And he
describes the scheme of funding Fatah al-Islam as "a covert program
we joined in with the Saudis as part of a bigger, broader program of
doing everything we could to stop the spread of the Shiite world,
and it just simply - it bit us in the rear". That the Bush
administration Welch Club Arranged for Al Qaeda affiliates and
kindred spirits to enter Lebanon and received help from local 'club
members' is widely believed in Lebanon. The US Embassy in Beirut and
the CIA will neither confirm nor deny involvement in the plan to use
Al Qeada to confront Hezbollah
Everything seemed to be falling neatly into place. Much like the
US/Saudi supported Osama Bin Laden operation in Afghanistan during
the Soviet occupation, cash was committed (apparently it did not
dawn on the Welch Club that history sometimes repeats itself and
that their creation may not be easily returned to Pandora's Box). In
addition there were other deep pockets that could be tapped. As
Forbes magazine documents, the Hariri family fortune skyrocketed
from a measly 4.1 billion in 2002 to 16.7 billion and counting, as
of early last year- a stellar performance even by Saudi standards.
Surely some seed money was in order and Bahia Hariri wasted no time
in funding Fund al Sham in the Taamar neighborhood just outside of
Ain el Helweh, whose PLO factions objected to the group inside its
'jurisdiction' while her nephew arranged funding for Fatah al-Islam
and already existing Sunni Salafist groups including Osbat al Ansar
and Jund Allah, both mainly staffed by Lebanese and beefed up with
outsiders brought in for the purpose. Mohammad Kobanni, the Grand
Sunni Mufti and Hariri aide, is accused of chipping in with
"religious scholar visas" to ease entry into Lebanon of al Qeada
affiliated Salafists
Hezbollah is the mortal enemy of al Qeada, who considers Shia
apostates. In return, Hezbollah acuses al Qeada of subverting the
Koran and conducting terrorism, as they made clear in their
denouncements of Al Qeada following 9/11. But many observers here do
not expect them to fight each other.
When the Welch Club decided to move Fatah al-Islam from the Southern
Sidon base at Ein el Helweh, to the North Lebanon Nahr al-Bared
camp, Ms. Bahia Hariri admlits that she paid for the
transplantation, according to Arab Monitor of 6/6/07. Given the
disaster that happened when Jund al-Sham's unruly twin ambushed the
Lebanese Army on May 20, Mrs. Hariri feels awful and has generously
arranged with the Army to provide full scholarships to all the
children of the killed soldiers, 61 as of June 13, 2007, for an
average of 2 per day killed, with five times that number wounded and
more than 80 civilians killed.
Both Jund al-Sham and Fatah al Islam are joined together by
friendship and family with al-Sham supplying some of the initial
fighters for establishing FAI. It is also why so many checkpoints
have now been set up along the Sidon to Tripoli road, which funnels
men and material in both directions. The June 4, 2007 attack by JAS
in Sidon's Ein el Helwe camp against the army was in direct response
to the Army increasing pressure on FAI in Nahr al-Bared.
JAS has admitted ties to the Hariri family and both JAS and FAS were
funded from the same spigot of Washington/Riyadh/Hariri (Welch Club)
money. The March 14th group, but particularly Saad Hariri, is now
calling for the complete destruction of both these Welch Club
creations, as is the Palestinian Authority envoy, Abbas Zaki, who
wants increased recognition for Palestinians and better conditions
in Lebanon for the 420,000 Refugees. Zaki also wants policing
authority for all of the 12 Palestinian camps in Lebanon. The Welch
Club objects to Zaki's proposal because they fear the Palestinians
will become too powerful and may even demand representation in
Parliament!
On May 22, 2006 the Welch club got orders from the White House to
pull the plug on the North Lebanon Sunni army project following the
horrific slaughter of May 20 when it became obvious that the
Salafists were out of control, more interested in fighting Israel
than Hezbollah or the Palestinians, and too many questions were
being asked about who they were, how they got into Lebanon and who
arranged and eased their entry and for details about one of the
strangest " bank robberies" ever to occur. On June 11, 2007, Michel
Aoun, leader of the largest group of Christians in Lebanon demanded
a thorough investigation of the whole Nahr al-Bared conflict and the
involvement of the Siniora government.
As recently as May 2007, Al-Akbar (Algeria) reminds us, that the
Welch Club was bad mounting the Lebanese army claiming it was too
sympatric to Hezbollah, had too many Shia in its rank and file and
may not be up to the job of protecting Lebanon, not from Israel of
course but from ' internal dangers'.
The Bush Administration was in no hurry to help the Army. That has
all changed since the events of May 20 and Fatah al-Islam's attack
on the army which condemned to futility the Northern Sunni Army
project. No way could these compromised Sunni Salafist groups be
used by their sponsors as the catalyst of the Northern Sunni Army,
hence the new US interest in the Army of the Republic of Lebanon.
Hence the Bush administration joined every would-be patriotic group
in Lebanon which supports the army publicly. The Bush administration
speeded up already paid for spare parts and ammunition for the
Lebanese army. In the coming months more than $230 million is to be
directed to Lebanon for the army from Washington with financing
available, not gifts.
The new Bush administration largess for Lebanon's army should be
kept in perspective and not confused with military and economic aid
to Israel . Over the past 10 years average US aid to Lebanon (mainly
for reconstruction following Israeli attacks with US weapons) has
been approximately $ 33 million per year. Compared with $ 15.1
million per day to Israel for an annual average of 5.7Billion.
Indeed, Israel , slightly larger than Lebanon, makes up roughly
0.06% of the Worlds population but receives more US aid than all of
South America, Central America and Africa (minus Egypt) combined. Of
total US foreign aid to the other 195 countries members of the UN,
Israel gets more than a quarter of the entire US foreign aid budget.
Or looked at another way, each Israeli family receives approximately
$ 6,000 in US aid per year, American families $3,300 and Lebanese
families $ 12. The Palestinians get 29 cents per family.
According to Beirut press reports of 6/12/07, a Lebanese Army
official stated during an interview with the Daily Star, "We (the
Lebanese Army) also suspect that the U.S. is putting pressure on
other Western and Arab countries to not supply us with weapons, and
to only provide us with ammunition and vehicles for logistical
support."
He said that a military aid package pledged by Belgium late last
year, which included 45 Leopard-1 tanks, 70 armored personnel
carriers and 24 M109 self-propelled guns, had suddenly gone to
another country with no clear explanation from Brussels.
"Officials in Belgium had made the pledge... and we had made all the
needed arrangements before they suddenly changed their minds and
said they sold the weapons to another country," said the official.
A Belgian Ministry of Defense official said June 8 that ´the
donation of equipment was canceled because of the Belgian
government's worries about the political-military situation in
Lebanon" Translation: The Bush administration worries it may be used
against Israel.
The same Bush Administration shackling of the Lebanese army occurred
with the nine French Gazelle attack helicopters donated by the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) which can be seen daily whizzing along
the campus of the American University of Beirut up the coast to Nahr
al Bared. The Gazelles arrived with 20mm machine guns but without
HOT antitank missiles. The Lebanese army states they were told that"
the missiles were not included because they were old and needed
replacing" According to former long time UNIFIL, spokesman, Timur
Goksel, now lecturing at AUB, it's a simple and quick matter to
stick on the missiles". Nevertheless, without the missiles the LAF
sends the Gazelles into action against Fatah Al-Islam in the Nahr
Al-Bared refugee camp with machine guns, basically to chase snipers
off rooftops.
Many in Lebanon believe that the Lebanese army is being designed by
Washington and Tel Aviv to be an internal Welch Club police force
with the capability to fight the Palestinians or Hezbollah if need
be, but definitely not to be given arms necessary to protect Lebanon
from Israel.
The past three weeks have seen numerous arrests of Palestinians by
the Lebanese army outside of Nahr al Bared and between Tripoli and
Beiut with reports of torture. Human Rights Watch condemned these
practices yesterday and if they don't cease the Army may lose much
of the goodwill it has been receiving from the public.
Two weeks ago Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nassrallah warned
the need to respect a 'red line' on attacks on the Army as well as
entry into Nahr al-Bared. Criticized at the time in some quarters,
Nassrallah appears to have been correct in his counsel in light of
the high casualties and humiliation being suffered by the army and
the destruction of al-Bared and civilian casualties.
A just released study by the Fafo Institute for Applied
International Studies focused on the socio-economic profile of Nahr
al-Bared and concluded that approximately "half" of the employed
residents of Nahr al-Bared may lose their jobs and incomes as a
result of the conflict.
"Unlike other refugee camps in Lebanon , the majority of the
refugees in Nahr al-Bared worked within the camp," Age A. Tiltnes,
the study's researcher and Middle East coordinator, reported.
Prior to the conflict, 63 percent of the labor force in Nahr
al-Bared worked inside the camp. The study lists "physical
destruction" as the main difficulty refugees will face when trying
to resume their previous jobs. Two thirds of the businesses will be
prevented from functioning because of the copious destruction:
demolished buildings, including offices, workshops and stores, as
well as ruined roads and a broken sanitation and electricity
infrastructure.
"They will have no jobs and no livelihood once they go back," said
Tiltnes, adding that "investments and external help" will be needed
to get the displaced back on their feet. With most of the schools in
Nahr al Bared destroyed, some 5,000 school children are without
classrooms (a third of the residents of al Bared are younger than 15
and nearly half under 20).
Further fallout from the failed "Sunni army" project includes
increasing evidence that the Bush administration is playing the same
role in Lebanon as it is in Iraq. The Iraqi Shia leader Moktada Sadr
claims the US is behind the sectarian violence in Iraq and the
schism between Iraqi ethnic groups and the country's economic
hardships. He is calling for a "cultural resistance'' against US
influences and what he called the US attack on Islam.
Sadr's views are resonating in Lebanon where increasingly the
various confessions are realizing that the Bush administrations
"great support for Lebanon's young Democracy" may be short lived and
quickly abandoned if the Lebanon continues to resist Israel.
In Iraq , where the Islamic Army is one of the strongest and
best-organized Sunni armed groups, responsible for dozens of attacks
on American forces, and at odds with al-Qeada, both groups appear to
have settled their differences and have united against the Bush
administration occupation. It appears quite likely that, despite
yesterdays attack on the Shia Imam el-Askary Mosque Sunni and Shia
groups in Lebanon will be able to avoid continued internecine
warfare.
In Lebanon , evidence of Sunni, Shia, and Christian mutual tolerance
was heard in last Sunday's Sermon (6/10/07) by the Maronite Patriach
Nasrallah Sfeir, in east Beirut.
The Maronite Patriarch sounded conciliatory towards the Muslim
population including Hezbollah, appearing mindful of the positive
Shia-Christian friendship and cooperation which was encouraged by
the vanished Imam, Musa al-Sadr, who worked with the Christian
leadership in the Sidon area, sometimes delivering sermons in
Churches and participating in a Christian wedding. The Maronite
Patriach is aware that during the July 2006 war there were many
occasions when Christians gave refuge to Shia neighbors during the
Israeli attacks. Cases such as in Aita al-Shaab when following days
of Israeli artillery and bombing some of the residents were able to
emerge from shelters and make their way to the nearby Christian
village of Rmeish where they were sheltered. Israel sometimes
appears to avoid bombing Christian villages except in cases like
Qana. Shia protection for Christians includes efforts during the
1860's Druze massacres of Christians in the mountains east of Beirut
to help the latter move to safety in South Lebanon, as well as the
Shia Fatwa issued at the time of the Turkish massacres of Armenians
in 1906 stating that it was the religious duty of Muslims to aid and
protect the Christians.
One of the lasting impressions of some Americans from the July 2006
war in Lebanon was the site of Muslim Hezbollah soldiers, protecting
Christians seeking shelter, from Israel soldiers and bombs, inside
their Holy Grotto at Qana where according to Christian tradition,
the Virgin Mary asked her son Jesus to make wine for poor villages
who gathered from surrounding villages to watch the event.
Some of us forget the two millennia of close friendships among all
religions in the "northern holy land" of Lebanon where Jesus
frequently visited friends to escape the hostility of the Sarihedrin
to the South and to enjoy the villages and the sea at Tyre and
Sidon.
When Pope Benedict spoke with President Bush the other day and
expressed his concern over the safety of Iraq's Christians, it
included his angst over the 18,000 Iraqi Christians estimated to
have been killed by US bombs and artillery. Many Iraqi Christians
are making their way to Syria and Lebanon given these countries
traditions of religious tolerance.
And the blowback continues....
Franklin Lamb's recent book, The Price We Pay: A
Quarter Century of Israel's use of American Weapon's against Lebanon
(1978-2006) is available at Amazon.com.uk. Hezbollah: A Brief Guide
for Beginners is expected in early summer. Dr. Lamb can be reached
at fplamb@gmail.com.
