Israels strike option on Iran seen as limited By Danny Gur-arieh TEL AVIV, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Israel's surgical strike against Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor 16 years ago looms large these days whenever the Jewish state talks about the dangers posed by Iran's missile and nuclear programmes. The surprise 1981 air strike reduced to rubble Iraq's French built reactor north of Baghdad just weeks before it was due to ``go critical'' with the insertion of uranium rods into the core -- setting back by years President Saddam Hussein's atomic ambitions. That may have been what Israel's Defence Minister Yitzhak Mordechai was reminding Iran of last month when he said: ``The other side must know that Israel will not take it lightly if someone targets us with long-range missiles and threatens our population.'' But a repeat performance against fundamentalist Iran, widely seen in Israel as public enemy number one, would be difficult to stage. Iran is a more distant target, its facilities are strategically dispersed and its leaders have learned the lessons of Osirak. ``I'm not saying it's impossible but it will be a lot more complex,'' said political scientist Gerald Steinberg. COUNTDOWN TO ARMAGEDDON Israeli leaders say time is running out in the bid to block Iran from developing ballistic missiles and arming them with nuclear warheads -- a nightmare scenario for Israel. A nuclear Iran, Israelis fear, would tip the balance of power in favour of hardliners in the Middle East implacably opposed to conciliation with Israel. It would also rob Israel, believed to have made the nuclear leap more than 40 years ago, of its ultimate military edge. Israeli officials estimate Iran will complete development of the Shahab 3 -- a ballistic missile capable of reaching Israeli cities more than 1200 km (750 miles) away -- within one to two years. According to their assessments of Iran's nuclear programme, the Islamic state could be capable of assembling its first atomic bomb as soon as 2002. ``A country like Iran possessing such long range weaponry -- a country that lacks stability, that is characterised by Islamic fundamentalism, by an extremist ideology, that is striving to become a superpower in the Middle East -- is very dangerous,'' Mordechai told a conference last month on ballistic missiles. Israel so far has restricted its campaign to the diplomatic arena, urging what it says is main supplier Russia to stop military aid to Iran and pressing the United States to apply its own pressure on Moscow. Both efforts have fallen short. Russia denies helping Tehran develop missiles and insists the nuclear reactor it supplied Iran is non-military. PLANES THAT CAN REACH TEHRAN What Israel likes to refer to as the ``long arm'' of its air force became a little longer this month when it took possession of the first of 25 advanced fighter planes purchased from the U.S. with Iran in mind. Israel chose Boeing's F-15I over Lockheed Martin's cheaper version because of the plane's longer range and its ability to carry a bigger payload. The fighter plane is believed to be capable of reaching Iran -- nearly twice Iraq's distance from Israel -- without refuelling and delivering 11 tonnes of bombs and missiles. Israel's military alliance with Turkey, which shares a long border with Iran, could make the route easier. The need in 1981 to fly over enemies Jordan and Saudi Arabia complicated the mission to Iraq. But that is where the advantages end. Iran's missile programme is being developed simultaneously in institutions and installations throughout the country, experts say. ``Physically there are too many factories where they can be produced. These factories are easily concealed,'' said political scientist Benjamin Frankel, editor of a Washington-based journal on strategic studies. ``Iran is a huge country geographically, with many nooks and crannies,'' he said. Tehran's nuclear facilities are probably buried underground -- a lesson learned from the fate of Iraq's above ground reactor -- and surrounded by batteries of anti-aircraft missiles. The key question might be a mystery to Israeli intelligence officials -- has Iran's nuclear facility already gone critical? ``If we destroy a nuclear reactor or a separation plant when they are already critical, we should take into account that...it has the potential of releasing a considerable amount of radiation,'' said Frankel. ``Depending on the wind patterns, we might kill quite a few Iranians.'' SCIENTISTS WERE TARGETS IN THE PAST Frankel cites instances when Israel targeted foreign scientists working at facilities rather than the facilities themselves. According to ``Israel's Secret Wars,'' a book on the history of Israeli intelligence operations, secret agents are thought to have murdered German scientists working on an Egyptian rocket programme in the 1960s and an Egyptian metallurgist involved in 1980 on Iraq's nuclear effort. ``You can begin to engage in a very systematic campaign of eliminating key engineers and scientists who belong to the Iranian programme,'' said Frankel. But missile technology is so widespread, he said, that Iran would always find new instructors. ``We can slow (a country) down probably but I don't think it is possible to prevent a country really bent on acquiring missiles from doing so,'' Frankel said.